Texas U.S. Senate — 2026 (Class 2)

Texas U.S. Senate is on the November 3, 2026 ballot. A senator serves six years. Class 2, the class on the regular 2026 ballot, is the class whose terms expire in January 2027. In plain terms, what is at stake is one six-year vote in a 100-seat Senate, including votes on legislation and on confirmations. It is not a national scoreboard. Control of a chamber, where the office sits in one, depends on every other seat as well. This page is one contest.

The Secretary of State’s certification does not include John Cornyn, so the seat is open. Ken Paxton, James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown are the three names. Cook’s stored label is Tossup, and the guide’s surveys sit near a tie, which in a state of 254 counties means early returns from the largest counties are not a sample of the whole state. The governor’s race on the same ballot carries a different rating, so reading one contest from the other is a mistake.

The principal names on the guide are Ken Paxton (REP); James Talarico (DEM). The guide also carries this listing note: The Secretary of State’s 2026 ballot certification for U.S. Senator does not include John Cornyn. Ken Paxton is cited to Texas Secretary of State, 2026 ballot certification for the November 3, 2026 general election. James Talarico is cited to Texas Secretary of State, 2026 ballot certification for the November 3, 2026 general election. Each of those sentences identifies a listing. It does not quote a speech. A campaign site is the candidate’s own words. This preview does not paste one unless a sentence above names that page, and these sentences name the election-office or Clerk list instead.

Cook Political Report published Tossup as of August 20, 2026. Those labels belong to the outlets. This site does not average them and does not treat them as a prediction of the canvass. One survey stored here is Emerson College / Nexstar, Sep 12–14, 2026: Talarico 47, Paxton 46 (Talarico +1). The sample line is “1,000 LV.” The figures are that release, linked on the poll table. They are not an average, not a model, and not a forecast.

The last regular election for a Class 2 seat was 2020. The Federal Election Commission compiles the certified federal canvass after the states report it. This preview does not copy a 2020 or 2024 percentage it has not taken from that compilation or from Texas’s own canvass. A prior margin is a record of that year’s ballots.

Texas counts this ballot under its own calendar. Registration, early voting, and mail-ballot deadlines that this site has checked sit on the voting-deadlines page and on the state hub, each tied to an official page. Totals on election night are unofficial. Mail ballots, provisional ballots, and any later round the state requires can move them. Turnout is a ratio that changes with the denominator — voting-age population, registered voters, or ballots counted — and the Census Bureau’s survey is not the same instrument as the canvass. Nothing here is a call.