How to read a poll without treating it as a forecast

A poll is a set of interviews, taken on stated dates, of a stated group of people, summarized by a pollster. It is not the election. On this site a poll row appears only when the page can name the pollster, the dates, the sample, and a link to the release or to the page that printed the figures. If those fields are missing, the row is not added. An empty table is not a hint. It means this site does not have a survey it is willing to cite.

The margin of error is a statistical statement about a random sample of a given size, usually at a confidence level the pollster names. It is not a promise that the result sits inside that band. It does not cover every way a poll can be off: a low response rate, a sample that misses a group, a question asked in a way that pushes an answer, or a likely-voter screen that guesses wrong about who will vote. Two polls a week apart can differ by more than either margin of error because the samples and the screens differ, not because the electorate rewrote itself overnight.

Read the population line before the horse-race line. “Adults,” “registered voters,” and “likely voters” are different groups. A lead among adults is not a lead among people who will cast a ballot. Also read who sponsored the poll. A campaign, a party committee, an advocacy group, a university, and a news organization can all field a competent survey, and all of them choose when to publish. This site labels the sponsor when the source names one. The label is disclosure, not a seal of approval.

Averages and models are another product. Some outlets average polls. Some forecast seats. When this site mentions such a product, it names the outlet. It does not recompute the average, and it does not publish its own. A Cook Political Report rating such as Toss-up, Lean, Likely, or Solid is that outlet’s category, dated on the race guide. It can change. Quoting it is not an endorsement of the category and not a statement that the race will finish there.

The honest use of a poll in October is modest. It shows how a named pollster’s sample answered a question on those dates. The election is the canvass after November 3, 2026. Voters who want the candidates’ own words should use the candidates’ sites and the news pages that quote them, not a horse-race number. Voters who want the ballot should use the election office. A poll is not a ballot.